We have never been accused of being slow with an opinion .............. so...

Who will miss The News of the World?
The June 2011 figures from The British Population Survey show that NOTW is (was) the leading Sunday paper with 9.5% of the population regularly reading it, (that’s about 4.8m people). Sunday newspaper readership has, however, been on a serious decline. In 2008 46% of the population regularly read at least one. Now that figure has reduced to just 36%.
This means that NOTW accounts for over a quarter of all Sunday newspaper readers.
So, what will they read now? Will Sunday ever be the same again for them? Will they care?
If rumours are to be believed, News International will fill the gap with ‘The Sun on Sunday’ or some such title. With a quarter of the market up for grabs they may not find it as simple as that. People may not be quick to switch to NOTW2 under a new name, and the competition will be hot. And what of the advertising revenue which will not now be spent in NOTW? Will that be redeployed into other titles? Maybe some of it, but the bulk of it won’t - advertisers will already be using the competitor titles for that segment. So, the newspaper industry will be deprived of more advertising revenue at a time when less and less people are prepared to buy a newspaper.
So, who will miss it? That remains to be seen, but one has to suspect that News International miss it most. Posted by Steve 11/07/2011

Unemployed? – Off yer bike, on yer android!
As I prepare the new June data for distribution I was looking at some topics we specially monitor. Unemployment is one of these, and the latest numbers set me thinking about how things have changed in a relatively short period of time. During the last Conservative administration, Norman Tebbitt notoriously made reference to the unemployed ‘getting on their bikes’ to find work. The figures for the last three months demonstrate that almost a third of those seeking work and using Online Job Search are accessing the internet via a Mobile Device.
Somehow “on yer bike!” has a different ring to “log on yer android”, but clearly there has been a revolution in ‘mobile devices’ over the last 30 years.
By the way, the June Unemployment rate is 7.83%, up from 7.65% in May – but we are all still waiting for the ONS figures for May. (Click here to see the latest Unemployment Trend chart). Posted by Mike 05/07/2011

Are digital marketers ‘Martin Peters’ when it comes to Social Media?
Maybe this headline will not mean anything to ‘Digital’ marketers, many of then will not remember the 1966 World Cup winning footballer. The man Sir Alf Ramsey described as being "ten years ahead of his time".
So, what has that got to do with marketing? Well, I was looking at the latest data from The British Marketing Survey which now includes a section on what influences people to buy. The interesting thing that stuck out was that while anyone reading the Marketing Press would be forgiven for thinking that digital, and particularly Social Media and Mobile Commerce, are the only game in town, consumers are not there yet.
This is the first time I have seen data on how many people are actually influenced by these new media compared to the older ones such as good old Friends and Family, brand experience, in store offers, on pack, leaflets etc. It turns out that while there is a lot of talk of activity on Social Media, top of the influences list is still advice from family and friends (63%) followed closely by good experience in the past (54%).  In store offers come third (35%) followed by TV and offers through the door. Advice from friends on Social Networks comes way down the list with only 3% of people saying that they are influenced by friends on things like Facebook and Twitter.  It seems that there is a big difference between friends and ‘social network friends’!
So, maybe marketers are just way ahead of their time, maybe not ten years, but for now data like this helps to keep us focused on the effective rather than just the hype about the latest exciting development. Posted by Steve 29/06/11

When is a drop not a drop? When it’s the Unemployment figures.
The April unemployment figures have been trumpeted as a dramatic fall in the rate of unemployment. The biggest fall since records began.
Well, yes if you compare the April figure with the January figure. But, if you compare it to the March figure then, guess what, it’s the same, 7.7%
For the reason that ONS compare figures with the figure three months ago you need to look at the way they collect their data.
In a nutshell, ONS take a sample of the population and re-interview two thirds of them by telephone after three months. So, they compare the sample from three months ago to the most recent sample because two thirds of them are the same people. You can’t help wondering why they do it this way. After all if their figures are reliable then it is just as valid to compare the most recent two months and far more revealing.
They won’t be publishing their May figures for a while yet so if anyone is interested the British Population Survey May 2011 unemployment rate is 7.65%. Posted by Steve – 16/06/11

Keep the tills ringing not just the iPhones!
Mobile shopping seems to be the hot topic of late with a lot of noise about the number of people who are using their mobile phones (iPhones and the like) to shop on line.
Anecdotal evidence from retailers suggests that while there is a lot of talk that is not matched by actual sales.
Looking at some numbers; In terms of the population as a whole; 16% access the internet via a mobile device and only 35% have a web mobile phone  (eg iPhone, Blackberry, Android). In terms of those who shop on line (54% of the population) only 25% of them use a mobile device to access the internet. So, this nets down to about 13% of the population potentialy shopping on their mobile. It may be a case of ‘build it and they will come’ but with the numbers as they are at present businesses can not afford to get carried away by the shiny new toy at the expense of their more traditional bread and butter business. Posted by Steve - 01/06/2011

On line Shoppers only spend £84 each!
According to the latest IMRG Capgemini figures £5.2 billion was spent on line in April. An impressive figure as it is up 19% from the same month last year. One thing that puzzled me was the statement that this represented £84 per person.
This seemed to be a little low. On further investigation it seems that they base this on the total population, not on those who shop on line. This seemed to be a bit of a meaningless figure especially as 20% of the population do not even have internet access let alone shop on line.
So, consulting The British Population Survey, it can easily be established that in April 53% of the population bought non groceries on line and 16% bought groceries. As there is considerable overlap netting this off produces a total of 55.2% or 26.5 million people.
Thus, the average amount spent by an ‘on line shopper’ was £196. That’s more like it!  Posted by Steve – 23/05/11

SuperInjunctions & The Media
Couldn't help noticing the coverage of the Twitter based Injunction 'whistle-blower' on BBC last night and the papers this morning.
When you consider that more people use Social Networks and Blogs now (41.2%) than read the Sunday Papers (35.4%), and that with a downward pointing 43.1% that read the Daily Papers likely to be overtaken too before the year is done, where is the 'power of the media' now resident? Fleet Street or Palo Alto? Posted by - Mike 10/05/11

Where is the Growth in Social Media?
Everyone knows that in the last 2 years the number of Brits using Social Media has grown dramatically - but is the growth slowing? If so, which sections of the population are slowing and which are growing?
A quick look at the data shows that over the last 2 years the number of under 50s who use Social Media has grown by 50% but the number of 50+ people has doubled. With over 40% of the population being 50 or over perhaps the growth will continue a while yet.  Posted by - Steve 08/05/11

Optimistic Scots! 
Surprising though it may be, the Scots are the most optimistic in terms of their view of their future personal financial prospects, 18% of them think things will get better as opposed to only 16% of the Welsh and 14% of the English.
As these figures are from before yesterday's elections for the Scottish and Welsh Assemblies one cannot help but wonder if the situation will be the same when the May (post election) figures are published! Posted by - Steve 06/05/11

XBox (or at least an X in a Box)
It struck me, as I was 'doing my civic duty' today, that the Election and Referendum were, to all intents and purposes, nothing more than a giant Market Research exercise. However, it appears that their Respondent Verfifcation protocols are a little less rigorous than ours - wander up with a card, nod and away you go with a ballot paper!
It also struck me that if we claimed to be Population Representative when we only achieved a completely random sample of less than 40% of our target quota, and told our clients to spend their entire budget based on the opinions of probably less than 40% of that very small random sample of only 40%, that we would not be regarded as professional. As I said, just a thought! Posted by - Mike 05/05/11

Unemployment Figures; when does 7.9 minus 7.7 = 0.1?
The ONS Unemployment figures for Dec 2010, published in Feb 2011, claimed a 0.1% rise on the quarter. However, when looking back to the figures published for the quarter to September (yes, they compare the quarter to December to the quarter to September!) the figures are 7.9% for Dec and 7.7% for Sept.
Simple maths tells us that 7.9 minus 7.7 = 0.2.
Also when looking at the trend chart which they publish it also seems that the rate hit 8% in October when the Statistical Bulletin claimed 7.9%.
This confused me so I asked ONS, this is their explanation:
The published figures are rounded numbers BUT the movements are calculated on non rounded numbers but they do not publish the non rounded numbers. The chart also uses non rounded numbers.
So, did the rate of unemployment rise by 0.1% or by 0.2%?
Neither, the actual figure could be anywhere between the two. This anomaly can also mean that a fall can actually be a rise and a rise a fall when the figures are around the 0 mark.
So now you know! Posted by Steve – 15/04/11